South African Stats
days of lockdown
jobs lost (estimate)
Pandemics ~ Data & Analysis (PANDA)
Pandemics ~ Data & Analysis (PANDA) is a multidisciplinary initiative seeking to inform policy. PANDA’s technical team brings to bear knowledge from the fields of actuarial mathematics, economics and medicine and is continually recruiting. Membership is voluntary and independent of any institutions or political parties.
We have sought to make our models “as simple as possible, but no more so”, rejecting refinements that do not affect the ultimate answer. We aim to disclose everything that a skilled reader might require to understand and reproduce our results.
Analysing towards understanding
PANDA was founded to challenge the groupthink that permeates the global response to Covid-19. This response to the Covid-19 “Panic Pandemic” has been founded on counterknowledge : misinformation packaged to look like fact. We face not a virus, but a pandemic of credulous thinking and action.
We are fortunate to live in an era where the techniques and the data are available to evaluate the truth or falsehood of claims. History will reflect with astonishment at the goings on in 2020, we cannot wait for that inevitable outcome. We challenge for rationality in the here and now.
PANDA in the Media
PANDA’s Open Letter to Professor Puliam – as SACEMA distances itself from the models used to justify lockdown
Press Release: PANDA’s Open Letter to Professor Puliam – as SACEMA distances itself from the models used to justify lockdown Release: Immediate Prof. Juliet Puliam SACEMA Dear Professor Puliam, We refer to your letter of 5 June 2020 in reply to our letter of 1...
Release: Immediate Dear Mr. President, As South Africa enters Level 3 of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, we write to you with a deep sense of concern and dire urgency. You may recall from our previous communications that Pandemic ~ Data and...
Is COVID-19 going to be nearly as bad as the government has been led to believe? In early February, a virus broke out on a cruise ship. Harrowing accounts began to emerge involving hazmat suits, terrified crew serving meals to dying passengers and the dawning...
Understanding “Years of Life Lost”
Our estimates show South Africa’s lockdown will cause a loss of life at least 29 times greater than the loss of life it stands to prevent.
Years of life lost is an analysis that calculates the number of years of life lost when someone dies due to an incident, compared with that person’s remaining life expectancy at the point of death.
This figure can be measured across a population to estimate the aggregate years of life lost (YLL) to an impact.
Estimates show, of the jobs lost due to a continued lockdown, around 500,000 will be unlikely to return quickly.
These jobs indirectly support approximately two million people and will disproportionately affect poorer and more vulnerable populations. As a result, the proportion of people living just above the poverty threshold will fall into poverty.
The lockdown needs to be ended, the economy restarted and government and all South Africans need to implement behavioural changes that can curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Panda’s report has been shared widely with government and business in the hope that our data will inform decision-making in the highest offices and offset the potential emerging humanitarian crisis.
Globally stay-at-home orders have been issued to protect people, save lives and allow healthcare systems to prepare, adapt and respond to the coronavirus pandemic. The goal? Flatten the curve. South Africa’s lockdown is no different. Except that it is. Decisions that...